Cryptopedia · On-chain

Long-term vs short-term holders

On-chain analysis often splits the Bitcoin supply into cohorts by how long each coin has sat unmoved. The most common split is long-term holders (LTH) versus short-term holders (STH), and the two groups tend to behave very differently.

What the cohorts are

A coin is typically classified long-term-held once it has stayed unmoved past a threshold (commonly around 155 days), and short-term-held below it. The idea is behavioral: coins held through that window statistically tend to keep being held, marking conviction rather than speculation.

Why the split matters

Short-term holders are the marginal, reactive supply — more likely to sell into volatility. Long-term holders are the patient base whose accumulation or distribution tends to align with cycle phases. Watching supply shift between the cohorts is a lens on who is buying weakness and who is selling strength.

How it connects to valuation metrics

Cohort logic underpins several on-chain gauges. Realized-value and cost-basis metrics like MVRV, NUPL and SOPR can be split by cohort to show, for example, whether long-term holders are spending in profit — a common late-cycle signal. Read cohorts as slow context, not a timing trigger.

Holder cohorts — FAQ

What is a long-term holder (LTH)?

A long-term holder is an address or coin that has stayed unmoved past a threshold — commonly around 155 days — statistically marking conviction rather than short-term speculation.

What is a short-term holder (STH)?

A short-term holder is a coin moved or acquired recently, below the long-term threshold; this cohort is the more reactive, volatility-sensitive supply.

Why is around 155 days used as the threshold?

It is an empirical cutoff: statistically, coins that stay unmoved past roughly that age tend to keep being held, so it separates conviction supply from speculative supply.

How do cohorts relate to MVRV and SOPR?

Metrics like MVRV, NUPL and SOPR can be computed per cohort, revealing whether long-term or short-term holders are in profit or loss and whether they are spending — a richer cycle read than the aggregate alone.

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